Wednesday, July 26, 2006

.Crash 2.0?

Dharmesh Shah has an article up today about Web 2.0 and it's scary similarities to the first .com bubble. What I am wondering is are we about the repeat the "cleansing" process of the first .com crash?

I am seeing a few of the signs... the Nasdaq is flirting with going under 2000 today, had a single day drop of 22% today after reporting earnings, repeating Yahoo's similar 20+% single day drop a few weeks ago, and Microsoft's wipe of 30 billion off of it's market cap in a single day a few months ago. Many tech stocks are around their 52 week low. Yahoo dropped on things as silly as their new search engine being delayed a quarter, as if Yahoo releasing a new search engine will have any realistic impact on earnings in the short term.

Some people argue that most of the 2.0 businesses won't go under this time because costs are so low, and at least they are not going public. That's true in theory, but people forget what negative sentiment does to the idea of small business. I remember after the last crash all I wanted was a steady job, and of course now I'm back on the Startup bandwagon. What do you think? Temporary lull or big time crash? If you are in the lull camp, buy YHOO stock now, its a steal!


Post a Comment

<< Home